Tuesday, January 11, 2011

On a completely different subject: can we have some sunspots please?

I have been following this solar minimum since it started. After all, by education I'm an astronomer. We are or were going for a period of maximum insolation on this our home planet. It made sense to me that temperatures were getting higher. And then the Sun did something nobody had anticipated to the extent it's happening. The solar activity minimum was anticipated. It goes up and down every 23 years (or so) (or so??!!!). There are not enough data of sunspots to analyze far enough back. I looked at them and decided that there aren't. There is more than one period in there, that much I could tell. I happen to be married to this guy who integrated the atmospheric spectrum in the infrared and found that water in the atmosphere is much more important than CO2. I kinda knew that but then, I've been in infrared astronomy for a few years. Tracking some data, the temperature dropped after 9/11/2001 when all planes were grounded. That wasn't burned fuel, it was contrails.

Now here I am after the lowest rainfall year on record for Hilo:
(those are my data points for low rainfall, under 100", in hundredths of inches)
2010 6329
1983 6809
1962 7145
1995 8592
1932 8968 (data point from newspaper)
1981 8991
1977 9038
2003 9132
1972 9885
1975 9993

We have some El Ninos to account for too (definitely the mid90s and 2003)

so were getting to

2010 6329
1983 6809
1981 8991
1962 7145
1932 8968 (data point from newspaper)

omitting a few. It doesn't quite match, but I am writing this off the top of my head and not taking any submarine volcano eruptions into account (the latter is by private communication from my former coworker Firmin Oliveira - regarding submarine volcano eruptions possibly causing El Ninos).

I originally wrote this almost a month ago - and thought I had published it but apparently I didn't. By now we're looking back at another very dry January. Not quite as dry as last year, but the rainfall at the airport was still only 38% of normal and even less, 21% at the Piihonua rain gauge (still, that's better than the about 10% we had last year).

- But, we also have a few more sunspots even if January was low in those again too.

(and even if it says the post was published on Jan. 11, I didn't really finish it until Feb. 9)

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